Conservative Victory in German Elections

Germany’s recent federal elections have resulted in a victory for the conservative opposition, led by Friedrich Merz, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved unprecedented gains, marking their strongest performance since World War II.

Projections indicate that Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured approximately 28.5% of the vote. The AfD garnered about 20.5%, nearly doubling their support from the previous election. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) experienced a significant decline, finishing third with just over 16%, their worst postwar result.

Friedrich Merz has expressed his intention to form a coalition government soon. However, this endeavor presents challenges, as traditional coalition partners have suffered losses, and mainstream parties have consistently ruled out collaboration with the AfD. Merz emphasized the urgency of establishing a stable government, stating, “The world out there isn’t waiting for us, and it isn’t waiting for long-drawn-out coalition talks and negotiations.” 

The AfD’s surge reflects a growing sentiment of discontent among certain segments of the German populace, particularly concerning economic stagnation and migration policies. AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla declared the results “historic,” asserting, “We are now the political center and we have left the fringes behind us.” Despite their gains, other parties, including the CDU/CSU, have reaffirmed their refusal to engage in coalitions with the AfD, citing fundamental differences in policy and ideology. 

The election, held seven months ahead of schedule due to the collapse of Scholz’s coalition government, was influenced by several critical issues:

• Economic Concerns: Germany’s prolonged economic stagnation has raised questions about the nation’s fiscal policies and future growth prospects.
• Migration Policies: Debates over migration intensified, especially after recent incidents, leading to calls for stricter controls and reforms.
• International Relations: Uncertainties surrounding Europe’s alliances, particularly with the United States, and the ongoing situation in Ukraine have also played a role in shaping voter perspectives. 

Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the country’s likely next chancellor, has consistently demonstrated a strong commitment to supporting Israel and addressing issues pertinent to the Jewish community. Throughout his political career, Merz has emphasized Germany’s historical responsibility towards Israel and has advocated for policies that reinforce this bond.

In October 2024, Merz played a pivotal role in urging the German government to resume arms deliveries to Israel, including essential spare parts for tanks. This initiative came in response to a significant decrease in military exports to Israel earlier that year, a situation that drew criticism from various quarters. Merz’s intervention underscored his belief in Israel’s right to self-defense and Germany’s obligation to support it. 

Merz has also been vocal about combating antisemitism within Germany. In October 2023, he expressed concerns about accepting refugees from Gaza, stating that Germany already faces challenges with antisemitic sentiments among certain groups. This remark highlighted his focus on ensuring the safety and well-being of the Jewish community in Germany. 

Furthermore, Merz has criticized the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He pledged to work within the European Union to ensure that this warrant is not executed on German or EU soil, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic relations and Germany’s commitment to Israel. 

In addition to his support for Israel, Merz has shown dedication to Holocaust remembrance and education. On August 2, 2024, he delivered a poignant statement commemorating the genocide of the Sinti and Roma during World War II. In his address, Merz emphasized the importance of acknowledging these atrocities and the need for continued efforts to combat discrimination against minorities. 

Overall, Friedrich Merz’s actions and statements reflect a steadfast commitment to strengthening German-Israeli relations, supporting the Jewish community, and confronting antisemitism both domestically and internationally. We will see how he deals with the AfD.