Sacred Obligation Under Strain: Haredi Family Size Drops from 7.5 to 6.1
By Rabbi Yair Hoffman
At the heart of Jewish continuity lies a profound Mitzvah – one that has shaped our people’s destiny for millennia.
The Shulchan Aruch (Even Ha’ezer 1:8) codifies an important obligation based on the Talmudic discussion in Yevamos and the verse in Koheles (11:6): “Ba’boker zera es zarecha, v’la’erev al tanach yadecha” – “In the morning sow your seed, and in the evening do not hold back your hand.” This ruling establishes a fundamental obligation regarding family planning and demographics within Jewish communities.
The Gemara in Yevamos 62b expands on this concept, explaining that one who refrains from procreation is considered as if they have diminished the divine presence. The Rambam (Hilchos Ishus 15:16) further emphasizes this point, stating that even after fulfilling the basic mitzvah of pru u’rvu, one has an ongoing obligation of “la sheves yetzara” – populating the world. The Rama adds that one who continues to have children beyond the basic requirement is fulfilling the dictum of “ba’erev al tanach yadecha.”
Although the basic obligation of pru u’rvu – being fruitful and multiplying is fulfilled with having a boy and a girl – there is a further obligation to continue having children. The Talmud (Yevamos 63b) teaches that Rabbi Yehoshua maintained that if one had children in their youth, they should continue to have children in their old age, as one does not know which will succeed or whether both will be equally good.
Recent data from the Haredi Institute for Public Affairs reveals concerning trends that may indicate a weakening in the observance of this important halachic principle. Their comprehensive 2024 report shows the average haredi family size has declined to 6.1 children – a 43-year low. This represents a significant departure from historical norms within the community.
Other reports show that between 2003-2005, ultra-Orthodox women had an average of 7.5 live births. This number decreased to 6.5 births per woman by 2019-2021. For comparison, the fertility rate among other Jewish women in Israel during this period was considerably lower, averaging 2.5 children per woman. The fact that it is now down to 6.1 is indicative that the obligation is not being taken as seriously as in the past.
The demographic shifts appear to correlate with broader socioeconomic changes. The report indicates that 71% of the haredi population now uses the internet, nearly double the rate from 2014. Additionally, employment rates among young haredi men aged 20-24 have tripled since 2005, rising from 10% to 30%. These changes in lifestyle and exposure to secular influences may be contributing factors to the declining birthrates.
Economic pressures seem to play a significant role in this trend. The report shows that average apartment prices for haredi families have increased by 14% to NIS 1.6 million, while mortgage payments have risen 11% to NIS 3,840 monthly. These financial strains may be influencing family planning decisions, potentially at the expense of traditional halachic obligations.
The implications for future demographics are substantial. Previous projections of haredi population growth in Israel are being revised downward, with expectations now showing the community will comprise only 20-22% of Israel’s population by 2065, significantly lower than earlier estimates.
This trend raises important questions about the balance between perceived economic realities and halachic obligations. As Eli Paley, founder of the Institute, noted, these changes reflect “significant and profound changes in haredi society,” driven largely by economic pressures and contemporary challenges.
The data suggests a need for community leaders and poskim to address these developments and provide guidance on maintaining this important halachic obligation while navigating their apperception of modern economic challenges.
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