Did AI Cause Israel’s Unpreparedness on October 7th?

Special to Channel613.com

In what became the most devastating attack on Israel since the Holocaust, the events of October 7th, 2023, exposed a catastrophic intelligence failure. A groundbreaking Washington Post investigation reveals that this failure may have been partially rooted in the Israeli military’s increasing reliance on artificial intelligence over human intelligence gathering.

The Rise of AI in Israeli Military Intelligence

According to an investigation by teh Washington Post and Israel’s Arutz 14, at the heart of Israel’s military intelligence revolution stands Unit 8200’s current commander, Yossi Shariel. Under his leadership, the unit underwent a dramatic transformation, embracing AI systems like “Habsora” (The Gospel) – a sophisticated machine learning program built upon hundreds of predictive algorithms. This system allows soldiers to rapidly query an enormous database known internally as “The Pool.”

Habsora works by analyzing vast amounts of collected communications, satellite imagery, and social media data. Its algorithms extract coordinates of tunnels, missiles, and other military targets. The system’s recommendations, after review by an intelligence analyst, are placed in the target database by a senior officer. Through image recognition, soldiers could uncover subtle patterns, including minute changes in years of satellite imagery of Gaza that might indicate Hamas buried a rocket launcher or dug a new tunnel. As one former military official noted, this compressed “a week’s work into 30 minutes.”

The Lavender System

In 2020, the IDF developed another machine learning tool called “Lavender.” This system processes data to generate lists of potential Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants, assigning each individual a score predicting their likelihood of terrorist organization membership. Factors that could increase someone’s score included belonging to WhatsApp groups with known militants, frequently changing addresses and phone numbers, or being named in Hamas files.

Advanced Battlefield Technologies

The IDF’s technological arsenal extends beyond target identification. They’ve developed:

• The Hunter application, giving battlefield soldiers direct access to intelligence
• Z-Tube, allowing soldiers to view live feeds of areas they’re about to enter
• Map It, providing real-time estimates of potential civilian casualties in specific areas

The Human Cost of Automation

The investigation reveals a troubling shift in civilian casualty calculations. In 2014, the IDF’s acceptable civilian casualty ratio was one civilian per senior terrorist. During Operation Swords of Iron, this number reportedly increased to approximately 15 civilians for a low-ranking Hamas member, with higher numbers accepted for medium and senior-ranking members.

Warning Signs Ignored

Prior to October 7th, several senior intelligence officers had long-standing concerns about how AI technology was accelerating decision-making while masking fundamental flaws. Reports to senior command didn’t specify whether intelligence came from human analysts or AI systems, making it difficult for officers to make accurate assessments. Internal IDF criticism found that certain AI systems processing Arabic language had inaccuracies and failed to understand key words and slang expressions.

Cultural Shift and Its Consequences

Perhaps most critically, the emphasis on technology eroded Unit 8200’s “warning culture,” where even low-level analysts could easily brief senior commanders about concerns. Two former senior commanders told the Washington Post they believe the intensive focus on AI was a significant reason why Israel was caught unprepared on October 7th. As one official stated, “It became an AI factory. The human was replaced by the machine.”

The IDF’s Response

In response to the Washington Post, the IDF defended its use of AI, stating that claims about its AI usage endangering lives are inaccurate: “The more ability you have to concentrate information efficiently, the more precise the process becomes. If anything, these tools have reduced collateral damage and increased the accuracy of the human-guided process.”

Looking Forward

This investigation raises crucial questions about the balance between technological advancement and human intelligence in modern warfare. While AI tools can process vast amounts of data quickly, the October 7th attack suggests that human intuition, experience, and judgment remain irreplaceable components of effective military intelligence.