Survey: Sharp Rise in Support for Hamas Among Arab Israelis, Declining National Security Confidence Among Jews
A new survey by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) has revealed a troubling trend: support for Hamas rule in Gaza among Arab Israelis has risen dramatically, while Jewish confidence in national security has dropped significantly. The findings come as the country continues to grapple with the ongoing hostage crisis and debates over post-war governance of Gaza.
Support for Hamas Soars Among Arab Israelis
The survey, conducted between January 28 and February 2, found that 29% of Arab Israeli respondents now prefer Hamas to govern Gaza—up from just 8% in September. This makes Hamas their most popular choice for post-war rule, a shift that is deeply concerning given the terrorist group’s brutal attacks on October 7. Among Jewish respondents, a majority preferred a multinational force to administer Gaza rather than Israeli control.
Declining Jewish Confidence in National Security
The survey also found a sharp drop in Jewish optimism regarding national security. While 56% of Jews felt hopeful in December, that number plunged to 42% in January, reflecting growing concerns over security threats from both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in the north.
Hostage Deal: Jewish Public Divided
The ceasefire deal and hostage negotiations remain a major point of debate. Among Jewish respondents, nearly half (47.5%) believe the deal has benefited Hamas more than Israel, while only 21% believe Israel gained from the agreement. Despite this, 51% of right-wing Jews still support continuing negotiations, with even stronger backing among centrists and left-wing Jews.
Jewish women, in particular, were far more supportive of moving forward with the hostage deal, with 73% favoring continued negotiations compared to 58% of Jewish men. Among Arab Israelis, nearly all respondents (94% of women, 89% of men) supported the next phase of the deal.
Returning Displaced Families to the North
The question of whether Jewish residents of Israel’s northern communities should return home remains divisive. While most Arab respondents believe it is safe for Jews to return, Jewish opinion is split. Left-wing and centrist Jewish respondents were slightly more inclined to support returning residents home, while right-wing Jews expressed greater concern over security conditions.
October 7: Calls for More Resignations
Following the resignation of IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, the majority of Jewish respondents believe that the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet should also step down due to their responsibility for the failures leading up to October 7. Meanwhile, 65% of Jewish respondents support the establishment of a state commission of inquiry to investigate the failures surrounding the massacre.
Judicial Reform: Mixed Support for Changes
On the contentious issue of judicial reform, 42% of Israelis prefer maintaining the current structure of the Judicial Selection Committee, which requires broad consensus in appointing judges. However, 29.5% support the Levin-Sa’ar proposal, which would give political leaders greater control over appointments.
When asked if now is the right time to advance these changes, 47% of Jewish respondents said no, while 38% supported proceeding. Opposition was highest among left-wing and centrist Jews, while just over half of right-wing Jews supported implementing the changes immediately.
US Influence and the Ceasefire Deal
The role of former U.S. President Donald Trump in the hostage negotiations has also drawn strong opinions. A large majority (72.5%) of respondents credited Trump with advancing the ceasefire deal. Support for his role was surprisingly consistent across political lines, with 74% of right-wing, 79% of centrist, and 83% of left-wing Jews agreeing that he played a key role.
Additionally, 72.5% of respondents believe that Trump would pressure Israel—possibly even imposing sanctions—if the Netanyahu government does not align with broader U.S. Middle East policies, including a potential normalization deal with Saudi Arabia.
Conclusion
The survey highlights deepening divides within Israeli society. The growing support for Hamas among Arab Israelis raises serious concerns about national unity, while declining Jewish confidence in security underscores the challenges facing Israel’s leadership. With key decisions looming on hostage negotiations, judicial reform, and northern security, the coming months will be critical in shaping Israel’s future.