IDF’s Misjudgment of Hamas Left Southern Israel Vulnerable
For years, the IDF operated under the belief that Hamas was primarily focused on governing the Gaza Strip and was deterred from engaging in large-scale conflict with Israel. This perception led to policies aimed at managing the conflict through deterrence and containment, including permitting financial aid into Gaza and sidelining Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Authority. The underlying assumption was that improving living conditions in Gaza would reduce Hamas’s motivation for war. However, this approach underestimated Hamas’s strategic intentions and overestimated the effectiveness of economic incentives as a deterrent.
Investigations revealed that the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate received multiple indications over the years of Hamas’s intent to launch a large-scale attack. Despite this, these warnings were dismissed as unrealistic. A flawed culture within the intelligence community fostered overconfidence, with officials believing they had superior knowledge of Hamas’s capabilities and plans. This hubris led to a failure to anticipate the scale and coordination of the October 7 assault.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas executed a meticulously planned multi-pronged assault on southern Israel. The attack involved over 5,000 terrorists infiltrating through 114 breaches in the border fence, utilizing land, air, and sea routes. The IDF’s Gaza Division, responsible for the region’s defense, was overwhelmed for nearly ten hours. With only 767 soldiers deployed along the 59-kilometer border, the division faced an onslaught that resulted in the loss of over 1,200 Israeli lives and the abduction of 251 individuals. The majority of the casualties were civilians, and the region suffered extensive devastation.
In the hours leading up to the attack, the IDF identified five signs of unusual Hamas activity. Despite these indicators, prevailing misconceptions about Hamas’s intentions led to a dismissal of the possibility of an imminent large-scale assault. This oversight prevented the IDF from taking preemptive measures that could have mitigated the impact of the attack.
The revelations from these investigations have intensified public pressure on Israeli leadership to address the systemic failures that allowed such an attack to occur. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism for his strategy toward Hamas and has been urged to initiate a comprehensive inquiry into the political and military decisions leading up to the attack. However, Netanyahu has stated that such evaluations will take place only after the conclusion of ongoing military operations.
In response to the findings, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has taken full responsibility for the military’s shortcomings and is overseeing efforts to rectify the identified issues. The IDF is committed to overhauling its intelligence assessments, operational readiness, and strategic planning to prevent future lapses and to better protect the citizens of Israel.